Low-Altitude Economy: Commercialization is the Key
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In recent years, the low-altitude economy has garnered attention as a burgeoning industry, commonly referred to as a "trillion-dollar track." However, the recent bankruptcy of two prominent German unicorn startups in this sector, Volocopter and Lilium, has cast a shadow over the optimism that surrounded the industryBoth companies were recognized as pioneers in the low-altitude economy and had access to cutting-edge technologyYet, they faltered at the final stages of commercialization, highlighting the broader challenges that the industry faces on its path to commercial successThis scenario serves as a warning for the rapidly developing low-altitude economy in China, emphasizing that commercialization is not merely an option; it is the litmus test for development.
Volocopter was once celebrated as a star player in the low-altitude economyFrom its humble beginnings with prototype aircraft to achieving the world’s first manned test flight and gearing up for operational air taxi services, it set benchmarks for technological advancements and market strategy within the industryDespite these achievements, Volocopter found itself ensnared in the significant challenges of commercializationThe protracted process of airworthiness certification, soaring research and development costs, and an immature market environment proved to be insurmountable barriersThis predicament is not unique to Volocopter; the entire low-altitude economy is wrestling with analogous challengesOn one hand, the technology for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles has yet to mature completely, particularly concerning critical areas such as battery longevity and flight safetyOn the other hand, the industry is grappling with a lack of diverse business models and limited application scenarios, inhibiting its ability to achieve profitability on a large scaleThis struggle is not just a technological and market issue; it is a multifaceted dilemma involving policies, funding, and operational complexities.
The path to commercialization is essential for the growth of the low-altitude economy
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The unique characteristics of this industry necessitate a reliance on commercial undertakingsLow-altitude economy systems reside at the intersection of general aviation and technological innovation, mandating a dual approach driven by technology and market demandAs 2024 approaches, China's low-altitude economy is anticipated to become a pivotal element of the country's economic landscape, with substantial advantages in policy support, capital investments, and technological advancements, projecting a market size of around 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035. Yet, amidst this fervor, it is crucial to remain grounded in realityThe industry’s technological iterations and exploration of business models are still in their infancy, and a mature market structure has yet to be establishedThis is particularly true regarding the balance between policy support and market openness, where many unresolved challenges remainOnly through successful commercialization can the low-altitude economy establish a complete industrial chain, fortifying technological advancements with essential funding while paving new pathways for market expansion.
Currently, the primary challenge of commercializing the low-altitude economy lies in balancing technological development with market needsTaking the business-to-business (B2B) sector as an example, although low-altitude logistics and powerline inspections have established some market presence, actual profitable cases are rareConversely, in the business-to-consumer (B2C) sector, high costs associated with aircraft production and operation keep applications like short-distance travel and aerial tourism from generating significant consumer interestAdditionally, regulatory and industrial constraints are pivotal factors contributing to the sluggish growth of the industryDespite notable advancements in airspace management reform and speeding up airworthiness certifications, challenges such as the intricate approval process for low-altitude flights, high barriers to market entry, and prevalent local protectionism continue to hinder industry progress.
To resolve the commercial challenges of the low-altitude economy, three key strategies must be pursued:
First, a diversified range of application scenarios is essential to unlocking new opportunities
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Current development in the low-altitude economy is predominantly reliant on a narrow set of application casesThe industry must adopt a demand-oriented approach to explore an expanded array of business modelsFor instance, in agricultural sectors, low-altitude aircraft can assist with crop protection and precision irrigationIn public service, low-altitude applications can find value in disaster relief, emergency communication, and other high-impact scenariosMoreover, consumer-facing services should be aggressively developed, aiming to reduce costs through technological advancements, thereby enabling average citizens to access and enjoy aerial travel and entertainment experiences at more reasonable prices.
Secondly, enhancing policy support and market openness is vitalAirworthiness certification represents a significant hurdle for low-altitude economy participants, and the recent reforms in this field in China are commendableHowever, to genuinely invigorate market activity, further progress is needed in opening airspace and optimizing market entry conditionsFor example, introducing intelligent regulatory systems could elevate the efficiency of airspace management while streamlining the aircraft approval process to shorten the time from research and development to operationAdditionally, combating local protectionism through a coordinated national airspace management mechanism would nurture a fair competitive environment for enterprises.
Lastly, refining the entire industry chain and maximizing its value represent crucial steps forwardThe low-altitude economy encompasses a lengthy value chain from aircraft manufacturing to subsequent operational services, necessitating collaborative growth across all segmentsYet, the current distribution of value is fundamentally imbalanced, with the manufacturing segment gaining an excessive share while operational services and post-market maintenance have yet to capitalize on scale efficienciesFuture approaches should include the establishment of low-altitude economy industrial parks and collaborative platforms for supply chain partnerships, optimizing resource allocation, and enhancing connectivity among upstream and downstream segments.
Moreover, the commercial development of the low-altitude economy must emphasize the harmonization of efficiency and safety
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